DTN Morning Cotton Commentary          02/04 07:14

   Cotton Market Continues to Lay Low

   The cotton market continues to lay low as there doesn't seem to be any 
fundamental upward escape for the trade. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market continues to lay low as there doesn't seem to be any 
fundamental upward escape for the trade. Volume has been extraordinary (90,000 
the last two days) with cumulative volume continuing to increase at record 
levels so early in 2026. In fact, open interest posted its 14th consecutive 
all-time record at 372,796 contracts and has increased every day for the last 
22 sessions, adding an unbelievable 73,224 contracts. It sort of has "bubblish" 
characteristics. 

   USDA will issue its weekly export sales Thursday at 8:30 a.m. EST. Last 
week's business saw net sales of 203,000 bales, which was off 51% weekly. 
However, shipments of 257,000 were counted as a marketing-year-high.

   March options will expire this Friday, Feb. 6. Traders are anticipating how 
many puts and calls may expire in the money.

   Also on Friday, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders report. Its 
last issue showed managed-money funds had net-sold some 13,000 contracts, 
increasing their overall bearish position to 65,000-plus. 

   Next week, the NCC will meet and release its 2026 acres survey on Feb. 12. 
Then on Feb. 23, the spot March contract will enter delivery.  

   Chart support for March cotton stands at 62.00 cents and 61.50 cents, with 
resistance hovering about 63.10 cents and 64.00 cents. Wednesday morning's 
estimated volume is 15,320 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com or by calling 
(229) 890-7780.




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.