DTN Closing Cotton            11/10 13:38

   Cotton Eases Lower 

   Cotton slips after WASDE cuts production; traders await exports, COT data.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was moderately lower as Tuesday's WASDE held few 
surprises. Traders will now look towards this Friday exports--sales and 
Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) update for new prices influences.

   USDA issued its monthly supply--demand update Tuesday with the following 
text: COTTON: The U.S. cotton balance sheet for 2026/27 shows lower production, 
consumption, and ending stocks relative to last month. Projected exports, 
imports, and beginning stocks are unchanged. The production forecast is reduced 
by 267,000 bales to 13.18 million as the national average all--cotton yield is 
lowered by 2 percent to 775 pounds per harvested acre. 

   Upland cotton in the Southwest accounts for 250,000 bales of the overall 
reduction as the regional average yield is lowered by 5 percent. The production 
and yield forecasts for the Southeast and West are slightly lower while being 
marginally higher in the Delta. The forecast for consumption is reduced by 
100,000 bales to 1.4 million bales as mill use through September is running 
behind last year's already weak pace. 

   With these changes, projected ending stocks are reduced by 100,000 bales to 
3.70 million, for a stocks to use ratio of 27.0 percent, down from 27.5 percent 
last month. The projected season--average farm price for upland cotton is 
lowered by one cent from last month to 76 cents/lb. The 2026/2027 world cotton 
balance sheet shows lower production, consumption, and beginning and ending 
stocks compared to October, while trade has increased slightly. Production is 
lowered by over 470,000 bales to 117.5 million driven by reductions for India, 
Turkey, Argentina, and the United States that more than offset larger crops in 
Australia and China. 

   Consumption is lowered by 335,000 bales to 122.7 million, driven primarily 
by reductions for Bangladesh and the United States. Projected exports are up by 
110,000 bales as higher exports from Cote d'Ivoire and Egypt more than offset a 
reduction for Kyrgyzstan. 

   Global ending stocks are lowered by just over 110,000 bales as reductions 
for Argentina, the United States and minor exporters more than offset an 
increase for Australia, with changes for China and India offsetting one another.

   Wednesday is Veterans Day with many agencies of the federal government 
closed. However, U.S. commodities markets, including ICE Cotton, will trade a 
normal day. 

   Export sales are delayed until this Friday due to the observance of Veterans 
Day. Highlights from last week's report had net sales of 277,522 bales for the 
2026/2027 marketing year. With that, cumulative sales have reached 51% of 
USDA's forecast versus a five--year average of 58% for this point in the 
marketing year. Shipments totaled 137,782 bales, which was a marketing--year 
low number.

   Also, on Friday the CFTC will update its Commitment of Traders (COT) data. 
Last week saw the managed funds sold 3,042 positions, further reducing their 
net long carry to 53,148 contracts.

   For Tuesday, December closed at 78.69 cents, down 9 points, March 2027 
finished at 82.51 cents, minus 9 points, and July 2027 settled at 84.54 cents, 
1 point lower. Tuesday's estimated volume was 141,526 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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