DTN Closing Cotton            10/22 13:34

   Cotton Can't "Stand Up" 

   Cotton slips amid harvest pressure as export sales improve, weather risks 
linger.


Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market closed "gently" lower Thursday after its strong 
performance of yesterday. Traders are still concerned with harvest pressure, as 
well as swirling outside markets. 

   Highlights from Thursday's export sales include total seasonal sales of 
199,630 bales. That amount was up from the 154,074 bales of last week. 
Cumulative sales reached 47% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 
55% for this point in the marketing year. Shipments totaled 196,366 bales, up 
from 140,561 the previous week.

    

   Brazilian cotton association, Anea, is projecting their nation's 2026/27 
cotton crop at the 4.267 million metric tons (19.60 million bales), a 5.9% 
increase from their August estimate. That projection is down slightly from the 
4.271 million tons (19.62 million bales) for 2025/26, which itself was up 2.2% 
from August. 

   Dry weather this week is helping the U.S. harvest advance, but there is a 
threat of wet weather in west Texas, the Delta and the Southeast next week that 
could slow things down. Specifically, the six-to-ten-day forecast calls for 
much above normal temperatures for most of the country. Rainwise, Texas should 
see above to much-above chances, while the Delta and the Southeast are 
expecting normal chances.   

   Then on Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitment of 
Traders report (C-O-T) numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds net bought 
1,862 positions increasing their net-long carry to 65,699 contracts.

    

   Next week the Federal Reserve will meet to discuss the U.S. economy. Recent 
reports are showing higher concentrations of inflation, thus the central bank 
may feel pressed to raise rates. However, most analysts feel that the central 
bank will wait until December to do so. 

    

   For Thursday, December closed at 80.79 cents, down 104 points, March 2027 
finished at 84.48 cents, minus 72 points, and July 2027 settled at 86.61 cents, 
65 points lower. Thursday's estimated volume was 49,165 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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