DTN Closing Cotton            07/16 13:33

   Cotton Sharply Lower Thursday

   The cotton market was sharply lower Thursday, beaten down by poor technical 
action, terrible weekly export sales, China's upcoming reserve auction, and 
weather interference. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market was sharply lower Thursday, beaten down by poor technical 
action, terrible weekly export sales, China's upcoming reserve auction, and 
weather interference.

   Highlights from Thursday's export sales report include weekly sales of 
34,360 bales for the current marketing year and 4,075 for the 2026-27 season, 
for a total of 38,435. That amount was down from 153,393 the previous week and 
the lowest since Aug. 1, 2024! Cumulative sales for 2025-26 have reached 106% 
of the USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 114% at this time in the 
marketing year. Shipments totaled 214,893 bales, down from 230,056 the previous 
week.

   Today's retail sales showed U.S. apparel sales fell to 0.9% 
month-over-month, despite an overall increase in consumer spending. That pace 
made apparel one of the weaker retail categories for the month. The headline 
report suggests consumers continued spending but shifted away from 
discretionary categories like apparel.

   China announced she will conduct an auction of cotton from her state 
reserves, starting this Monday. The amount and the time of duration was not 
revealed.

   Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of Traders 
information. Last week saw the managed-money funds had net-bought some 7,100 
positions, further enhancing their net-long carry to 39,106 contracts.

   For Thursday, December closed at 79.30 cents, down 225 points; March 2027 
finished at 80.70 cents, minus 223 points; and July 2027 settled at 81.24 
cents, 178 points lower. Thursday's estimated volume was 55,275 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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