DTN Closing Cotton            05/29 13:51

   Cotton Ends May Lower

   The cotton market maintained its bearish profile today, as trading was muted 
and uneventful.

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market maintained its bearish profile today, as trading was muted 
and uneventful. Traders were not necessarily impressed with the export sales 
data and now await this afternoon's CFTC report. December cotton closed out the 
month off 328 points.

   Highlights from today's USDA cotton export sales report include net sales of 
153,622 bales for the 2025/26 (current) marketing year and 112,041 for 2026/27 
for a total of 265,663. That amount was down from 347,754 the previous week but 
was the second highest since April 23. Cumulative sales have reached 99% of 
USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 107% for this point in the 
marketing year.

   Drought conditions in the U.S. Cotton Belt are beginning to mitigate. The 
U.S. Drought Monitor now shows 94% of the U.S. cotton production area is 
experiencing drought as of May 26, down from 97% the previous week and the 
lowest since March 31. The peak was 98%, which was held from April 25 to May 5. 
A year ago, 28% of the crop was in drought.

   India has lowered her expectations for this year's monsoon to 90% of a long 
period average from a prior forecast of 92%. If realized, it would make it the 
weakest monsoon since 2015. Then, an El Nino event reduced India's rainfall to 
87% of normal. The India Meteorological Department defines "normal" rainfall as 
ranging from 96% to 104% of a 50-year average.

   For Friday, July closed at 76.15 cents, down 62 points; December closed at 
79.59 cents, plus 6 points; and March 2027 finished at 80.72 cents, 13 points 
higher. Friday's estimated volume was 88,031 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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