DTN Closing Cotton            10/20 13:41

   Cotton Bristles Higher as Traders Pick Bottom Ahead of Harvest Low

   Cotton moves higher as traders anticipate harvest low, fuel aid boosts 
market sentiment.


Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market sloughed-off its recently quiet and timid attitude to 
trade nearly triple-digit higher Tuesday. With the net-long speculative 
position being noticeably reduced, along with the anticipation of a harvest 
low, some traders are attempting to "pick-a-bottom."   

   November Crude Oil expired Tuesday at $103, but not before posting a new 
contract high of $110.48. Constant unrest in the Middle East and Ukraine/Russia 
continue to support higher prices and wild volatility. 

   The Trump Administration announced it would be providing $8 billion in fuel 
assistance to US farmers to help offset record high diesel prices. Payments 
from the Harvest Fuel Relief program will be based on planted acres, estimated 
production costs and yields. Specific payments for each crop will be released 
in November.

   This Thursday, the USDA will issue its weekly exports-sales report. 
Highlights from last week's data saw combined seasonal net sales of 154,074 
bales, which was below the 221,128 bales of last week. Cumulative sales for 
2026/2027 have reached 45% of USDA's forecast versus a five-year average of 54% 
for this point in the marketing year.

   The six-to-ten-day forecast (Oct. 25/Oct. 29) calls for much above- normal 
temperatures for Texas and the Delta, but mainly normal readings for Georgia. 
Rainwise, Texas should see above to somewhat above-normal chances, while the 
Delta and the Southeast are showing much-below odds EDT.  

   This Friday at 3:30 p.m. EDT, the CFTC will update its Commitments of 
Traders report or (COT) numbers. Last week, the managed-money funds net bought 
1,862 positions increasing their net-long carry to 65,699 contracts.

   For Tuesday, December closed at 80.88 cents, up 75 points, March 2027 
finished at 84.18 cents, plus 75 points, and July 2027 settled at 86.32 cents, 
76 points higher. Tuesday's estimated volume was 38,788 

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




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