DTN Closing Cotton            08/03 13:36

   Cotton Rallies to Higher Close After Early Losses

   The cotton market respectably cut its early losses to settle higher Monday. 

Keith Brown
DTN Contributing Cotton Analyst

   The cotton market respectably cut its early losses to settle higher Monday. 
Initially, there were swirling concerns over the U.S. dollar, the U.S.-Iran war 
and perhaps improving growing conditions across the U.S. Cotton Belt. However, 
certain technicals and seasonals took the reins over to drive the ICE futures 
up.

   This afternoon at 4 p.m. EDT, USDA will update the condition of the 2026 
U.S. crop. Last week, the crop was rated at 46% good to excellent versus the 
previous year's reading of 55% good to excellent.

   We note that cumulative sales have reached 107% of USDA's forecast versus a 
five-year average of 114% for this point in the marketing year. Shipments 
totaled 233,795 bales, down from 276,313 bales the previous week. Last week 
marked the end of posting sales for the 2025/2026 season.

   Hot weather is expected this weekend, and for the next 10 days, for 
Xinjiang, China. Extreme high temperatures will range between 100 to 108 
degrees Fahrenheit. Such conditions will most assuredly stress some of that 
region's cotton. The U.S. Drought Monitor showed an area representing 
approximately 42% of U.S. cotton production was experiencing drought as of July 
28, which is a modest improvement over the 46% on July 14. A year ago, only 5% 
of production was in drought. Lastly, there are signs of pink bollworms in key 
growing areas of India. If that infestation widens there, it could be trouble 
ahead for the Indian crop.

   Crude oil prices were materially lower Monday after President Donald Trump 
called off a planned strike on Iran. The WTI futures declined $78.50. Trump 
said that he had called off a planned strike on Iran after receiving a request 
from Tehran and other countries in the Middle East. The president said the 
proposed agreement would include the total opening of the Hormuz Strait and an 
end to Iran's nuclear threat.

   For Monday, December closed at 82.57 cents, plus 78 points; March 2027 
finished at 84.13 cents, up 77 points; and July 2027 settled at 84.70 cents, up 
75 points. Monday's estimated volume was 56,051 contracts.

   Keith Brown can be reached at commodityconsults@gmail.com




(c) Copyright 2026 DTN, LLC. All rights reserved.