US Corn, Soybean Yields Lower 08/10 07:49

   DTN Digital Yield Tour Estimates US Average of 178.5 BPA Corn, 52.1 BPA 
Soybeans for 2026

   For the first time, the DTN Digital Yield Tour kicks off in 2026 with 
national yield estimates for corn and soybeans generated by DTN's own 
proprietary yield models.

Jason Jenkins
DTN Crops Editor

   JEFFERSON CITY, Mo. (DTN) -- One year after U.S. farmers set new all-time 
national average yields for both corn and soybeans, DTN's proprietary yield 
models indicate potential for a smaller harvest this season with yields 
currently falling below USDA trendline projections.

   The 2026 DTN Digital Yield Tour kicked off Monday, Aug. 10, with the release 
of the tour's first-ever national yield estimates. According to yield models as 
of Aug. 1, DTN predicts a national average corn yield of 178.5 bushels per acre 
(bpa) and an average soybean yield of 52.1 bpa in 2026.

   Last month, in its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) 
report, USDA estimated national average corn yield at 183.0 bpa for the season, 
while national average soybean yield was pegged at 53.0 bpa. These USDA 
projections are based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting 
progress and summer growing season weather. The DTN models update every two 
weeks and do not incorporate weather forecasts.

   While the DTN Digital Yield Tour is in its ninth season, this is the third 
year that employs DTN's proprietary crop yield models. The DTN team combines 
the data-driven, view-from-above forecasts with boots-on-the-ground insight 
from farmers, agronomists and other experts to paint a picture of corn and 
soybean yield potential as the crops push toward the season's finish line.

   ABOUT THE DTN MODEL

   DTN's yield models forecast at the field level using a wide array of 
publicly available data, such as Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) 
maps, growing degree days, USDA crop condition reports and more. They also 
include DTN's proprietary weather and soil data, making them unique.

   DTN's model methodology is also unique in that the models are trained on 
USDA Risk Management Agency (RMA) yield data, rather than monthly estimates 
prepared by the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Survey (NASS). RMA's data 
is compiled using crop insurance data, while NASS surveys farmers to build its 
county yield estimates. RMA's county yields tend to be higher than those 
reported by NASS, but the differences vary by county and region. By using RMA 
data, DTN can generate countywide forecasts for places with limited crop 
production.

   The DTN data science team rolls its granular forecasts into county, state 
and national averages. While not released during last year's DTN Digital Yield 
Tour, the team did construct national average yield estimates based on the 
model run of Aug. 1, 2025, arriving at yield estimates of 186.8 bpa for corn 
and 51.5 bpa for soybeans. In its final Crop Production Summary report, USDA 
placed the 2025 national average yields at 186.5 bpa and 53.0 bpa, 
respectively, for the two crops.

   GROWING SEASON IN REVIEW

   According to DTN Ag Meteorologist John Baranick, the weather this growing 
season has been variable, but that was expected.

   "With El Nino building in the Pacific Ocean, that generally leads to a lot 
of activity across the middle of the U.S.," he said. "But no two El Nino years 
are the same, and this one certainly was not like any we have seen before."

   Drought was a major problem in the spring, Baranick noted. Last year's La 
Nina produced some significant deficits across much of the territory east of 
the Rockies, and that meant both spring and summer rainfall patterns were going 
to be important in making up for the lower soil moisture.

   "In some cases, we saw early success; in others, drought persisted. And in 
yet other places, drought problems came, went and then re-emerged," he said. 
"Overall, background drought remained a problem in the Plains states on the 
western end of the Corn Belt. We teetered on both edges of it through the first 
two months of summer in the Upper Midwest."

   The weather pattern was consistent in early spring, Baranick observed, with 
a storm track that favored Texas through the Great Lakes. That helped to reduce 
drought there but allowed it to build in other locations -- especially Nebraska 
and the surrounding areas as well as the Delta and Southeast.

   Precipitation events were much more widespread in late spring and early 
summer. Flooding concerns were noted in many areas, Baranick said, particularly 
across the southern Corn Belt.

   "Severe weather was much more frequent than normal, especially the amount of 
wind events," he added. "Those seemed to be daily and very widespread, leading 
to early issues with lodging and greensnap."

   The variability also was evident in temperatures. Stretches of warmth were 
interspersed with periods of cold or cool weather, and early in the season, 
that led to some interesting planting dates.

   "Warmth in March got folks in the South planting early, but those who waited 
until at least April had to do so when the threat for frosts went away," 
Baranick said. "It took until mid-May for that to finally leave northern areas, 
resulting in a widespread planting window -- even across the same state."

   The back-and-forth nature of the temperatures continued into the summer, the 
meteorologist recalled, but it came in longer stretches than expected. Instead 
of just a few days above normal followed by a few days below normal, spans of 
five to seven days of heat were split up by five to seven days of mild 
temperatures.

   "That's happened throughout the summer so far but was more stagnantly 
persistent in July," Baranick said. "In June, that was fine, as enough rain was 
falling to make up for the heat. And soil moisture remained mostly good. But in 
July, the precipitation events became fewer and farther between as the 
corn-weighted July precipitation reached an eight-year low. An event at the 
very last couple of days of the month saved that from becoming the lowest July 
precipitation since 2014, but it will be difficult for models to take that into 
account so soon in early August."

   BASIS FOR BEING BULLISH?

   Should national average yields materialize as predicted by DTN's models, it 
could create a bullish situation for markets, said DTN Lead Analyst Rhett 
Montgomery. Assuming the USDA's harvested acreage estimate of 87.4 million 
acres is accurate, a 178.5 bpa yield would equate to a 15.6-billion-bushel (bb) 
corn crop.

   "That would be an 8% to 9% year-over-year decline," Montgomery said. "If 
demand stayed the same as this past year, the market would be looking at corn 
ending stocks by August 2027 approaching the 1.0 bb mark. Now, it's very likely 
in this scenario, we would see demand soften as a result of higher corn prices. 
So, maybe corn ending stocks of 1.4 bb to 1.5 bb would be reasonable.

   "That would be a sizeable decrease from this year with a stocks-to-use ratio 
of 8.6%, historically associated with a corn price more in the $6- to 
$7-per-bushel range than the $4-to-$5 range we've seen in the past few years 
with ratios north of 12%," he said.

   A bullish scenario could develop for soybeans as well, Montgomery noted, 
even if the USDA's trendline (and record-tying) national average yield would be 
realized -- barring an increase in acreage or a falloff in demand.

   "As long as demand continues to run strong, anything below the 53.0-bpa USDA 
forecast would likely have bullish implications for price," he said. "It's 
really a fascinating situation to be in because using the DTN yield model 
forecast and assuming USDA acreage, production would be roughly 4.4 bb and 
still among the largest U.S. soybean crops on record. With USDA's acreage 
assumptions, a 1.0 bpa drop in the national yield is essentially 84 million 
bushels of supply off the bottom line if the forecasted recovery in export 
demand and growth in crush demand is realized.

   "My math would put ending stocks by next August falling toward 230 million 
bushels, or a stocks-to-use ratio of just above 5%," Montgomery continued. 
"Bear in mind that this would be a tighter stocks situation than in the years 
immediately following the COVID-19 pandemic, but again a higher soybean price 
also would likely lead to some demand loss. That being said, the situation in 
my mind would warrant a higher price through the 2026-27 marketing year, 
probably closer to $12-$13 per bushel on average compared to the $10.40 farm 
price average for the season average in 2025-26.

   "There are still some wild cards to find out, such as acreage and demand," 
Montgomery concluded.

   YIELD TOUR COVERAGE

   Throughout this week, DTN will publish state-specific details about the corn 
and soybean crops according to this schedule:

   -- Monday, Aug. 10: Illinois, Wisconsin

   -- Tuesday, Aug. 11: Iowa, Minnesota

   -- Wednesday, Aug. 12: North Dakota, South Dakota

   -- Thursday, Aug. 13: Indiana, Ohio

   -- Friday, Aug. 14: Nebraska, Kansas, Missouri

   -- Saturday, Aug. 15: Best of the Rest (Short summaries of Arkansas, 
Louisiana, Tennessee, Kentucky, Texas)

   Jason Jenkins can be reached at jason.jenkins@dtn.com

   Follow him on social platform X @JasonJenkinsDTN




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